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Section 1: Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman’s Prediction Model Picks Kamala Harris as Winner
Historian Allan Lichtman, renowned for accurately predicting U.S. election outcomes, has announced his forecast for the 2024 Presidential race. Using his “Keys to the White House” model, Lichtman predicts that Kamala Harris will make history by becoming the next President of the United States. His prediction comes just days before Harris and Donald Trump are set to meet in their first Presidential debate.
Lichtman shared his prediction in a video for the New York Times, stating, “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States…at least, that’s my prediction for this race.” Lichtman has previously correctly predicted the 2016 election in favor of Donald Trump and the 2020 victory for Joe Biden. Earlier this year, Lichtman suggested that Biden would retain the presidency unless “a lot goes wrong” in November. His “Keys to the White House” model, which has been accurate since 1984, uses 13 keys to assess the likelihood of the incumbent party losing or winning. Currently, only two keys are against Biden, suggesting his party still holds an advantage.
Section 2: Key Factors Influencing the 2024 Election
Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman’s prediction model indicates that a Democratic victory in 2024 is likely due to several factors, including the lack of a strong third-party candidate, the absence of a recession in the U.S. economy, significant legislative achievements like the Inflation Reduction Act, and the absence of widespread social unrest. According to Lichtman, Donald Trump is not in a favorable position to reclaim the White House as he struggles with the “keys” to victory. Lichtman noted that three keys are definitively against Trump, while two others might also turn negative. However, even if five keys turn against Trump, it would not be sufficient for him to secure a victory.
Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” system predicts outcomes based on 13 true or false statements about the political and economic landscape. For an incumbent party to lose, six or more of the keys must turn against them. Currently, Lichtman’s model suggests that the Democratic party is poised to win, with only minor setbacks reflected in the keys.
Section 3: The Road Ahead to the November Election
With just 61 days remaining until the November election, the race is heating up. Early voting will begin in at least four states by the end of September, with more states following by mid-October. As the election approaches, Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman’s predictions add a significant element of intrigue, especially given his track record of accuracy. His model’s predictions hinge on the economic stability of the U.S., legislative successes of the Biden administration, and the absence of a strong third-party contender, all of which currently favor the Democratic party.
Lichtman’s endorsement of Kamala Harris as the likely winner places added pressure on both campaigns as they approach the first Presidential debate. Whether his forecast will hold true remains to be seen, but for now, his analysis suggests that Harris has the upper hand in the 2024 race.
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