Key Takeaways
- Corn yield estimates fell below expectations, supporting higher futures prices.
- Corn and soybean acreage increased by 2.8 million acres combined.
- Strong export demand is expected to reduce US corn inventories.
Corn from US crop futures climbed to their highest level in nearly 3 weeks after lower than expected US yield estimates raised concerns about crop supplies. Soybean prices also gained after yield projections were reduced, although higher planted acreage supported larger production estimates for both US Crop Forecast.
Lower Yields Support Corn And Soybean Prices
The US Department of Agriculture lowered its estimate for the average 2026 US corn yield to 180.7 bushels per acre, compared with 183 bushels previously and the 182.4 bushels expected by analysts. Soybean yield estimates were also reduced to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53 bushels, slightly below the 52.9 bushels expected.
The lower corn estimate followed extreme heat and dry conditions across parts of the Midwest during the US Crop Forecast critical pollination period in July. The projected yield would also be well below the record 186.5 bushels per acre recorded in 2025.
Despite the weaker yield outlook, higher planted acreage is expected to increase overall production. The agency raised combined corn and soybean planted acreage by nearly 2.8 million acres from its June estimate.
Corn acreage was increased by 1.39 million acres to 96.73 million acres. The revised figure remains below the 98.79 million acres planted in 2025 but represents the third-highest acreage level since 1940.
The higher acreage lifted the 2026 corn production estimate by 13 million bushels to 16.013 billion bushels. Soybean production was increased by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels, 6% higher than 2025 and above the previous record of 4.464 billion bushels set in 2021.
December corn futures rose 20.25 cents to $4.8075 per bushel, their highest closing price since July 24. November soybean futures increased 14.5 cents to $11.8325, while September wheat futures gained 22.5 cents to $6.5275.
Strong Demand Tightens Corn Inventories
The latest supply and demand estimates also pointed to strong demand for US corn during the coming marketing year. Corn inventories at the end of the 2026 to 2027 marketing year are now projected at 1.653 billion bushels, down 137 million bushels from the previous estimate.
The figure is also 292 million bushels, or 15%, below projected inventories for the 2025 to 2026 marketing year. The agency reduced its estimate for inventories at the end of the current marketing year by 75 million bushels to 1.945 billion bushels, reflecting stronger export expectations.
US corn exports for 2025 to 2026 are now projected at a record 3.4 billion bushels, an increase of 75 million bushels from the previous forecast. The 2026 to 2027 export estimate was also raised by 75 million bushels to 3.275 billion bushels.
For soybeans, higher production is expected to increase inventories. The agency raised its 2026 to 2027 ending stock estimate by 10 million bushels to 320 million bushels, while reducing the 2025 to 2026 estimate by 5 million bushels to 325 million bushels.
The wheat outlook was comparatively mixed. US wheat production for 2026 was reduced by 5 million bushels to 1.531 billion bushels, while 2026 to 2027 US ending stocks declined by 5 million bushels to 717 million bushels, the lowest level in 3 years.
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