Drastic Drop in Advanced Flight Bookings
Air travel between Canada and the United States has taken a massive hit, with advanced bookings plummeting by more than 70% for the upcoming summer season, according to aviation data company OAG. The alarming decline was highlighted in a recent blog post by OAG senior analyst John Grant, who attributed the drop to economic and political tensions between the two nations.
“Future flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. have collapsed,” Grant stated. Using forward booking data from a major Global Distribution System (GDS) supplier, OAG compared current bookings with those from the same period last year. The findings revealed a staggering decline of over 70% in each month leading up to the end of September.
The ongoing trade war initiated by former President Donald Trump, along with his controversial remarks about making Canada the 51st U.S. state, have fueled public frustration and could be a key factor in declining travel interest. In April alone, fewer than 300,000 advanced bookings were recorded for Canada-U.S. air travel routes, marking a more than 75% drop from the previous year. From May through September, bookings are consistently down between 71.4% and 72.2%, further reflecting weakened demand.
Cruise Lines Respond to Weak Canadian Dollar
The struggling travel market has also been impacted by the weakening Canadian dollar, prompting businesses to introduce strategic offers to attract Canadian travelers. Oceania Cruises has launched a limited-time promotion allowing Canadian residents to book select cruises using Canadian dollars at par value. This deal, available until May 31, translates into substantial discounts on more than 60 cruises scheduled for 2025 and 2026.
With the exchange rate as of March 26 sitting at 100 Canadian dollars equaling 70 U.S. dollars, the promotion offers significant savings for Canadian travelers. The discounted itineraries include a 16-day cruise from Reykjavik, Iceland, to Montreal, Canada, as well as voyages from Athens to Rome, French Polynesia to Auckland, and even a 20-day expedition to Antarctica.
This move by Oceania Cruises reflects an effort to counteract the impact of the struggling currency and weakened travel demand by incentivizing Canadian tourists with more affordable pricing options.
Airlines Adjust Routes Amidst Falling Demand
Despite the sharp decline in demand, airlines have made only minor adjustments to their schedules so far. Between March 3 and March 24, airlines removed over 320,000 one-way seats from the Canada-U.S. air travel market for flights between April and October. However, this accounts for just a 2.6% reduction overall. The most significant cuts are set for July and August, with a 3.5% decrease.
Some notable route suspensions include Air Canada’s Vancouver-Washington Dulles service, United Airlines’ Los Angeles-Toronto route, and several WestJet flights, including those connecting LaGuardia and Calgary, Orlando and Edmonton, and San Francisco and Vancouver.
OAG analyst John Grant noted that with summer approaching, it is difficult for airlines to modify existing flight schedules. Instead, some carriers are reallocating resources to other destinations. For instance, WestJet appears to be shifting some of its canceled U.S. flight capacity to Europe, adding 114 new European flights in recent weeks.
As the summer travel season nears, it remains uncertain whether airlines will implement further reductions or if demand will rebound. However, with ongoing economic challenges and political tensions, the Canada-U.S. air travel sector faces a turbulent road ahead.
