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After 19 rounds in the Italian Serie A, we can already make assumptions about what we will see at the finish line. The leadership is currently held by Inter Milan, which has scored 48 points in 19 matches. In the fight for spots in the Champions League are Juventus with 46 points, Milan with 39 and Fiorentina with 33 points over the same period. Bologna, with 32 points, is in position to qualify for the Europa League, while Atalanta, with 30 points, is currently eligible to participate in the Conference League. Verona with 14 points, Empoli with 13 and Salernitana with 12 are in the danger zone.
Bookmakers, including Pin Up UZ, accept bets on Serie A and seriously believe that only two teams will fight for the championship this season: Inter and Juventus. Considering the current state of affairs in the table, one cannot but agree with these assumptions. Let’s try to predict how the Serie A season will end and who will become the champion.
How the Serie A season will end and who will become the champion?
How Inter ended up at the top?
These are difficult times at Inter right now. The team faced the threat of financial problems when owners Suning faced financial restrictions and the need to repay loans. Typically, such financial problems can undermine a team’s confidence and force them to sell their best players to cope with financial demands. But in the case of Inter and their energetic coach Simone Inzaghi, the situation is somewhat different. Under Inzaghi’s leadership and tactics, Inter have not only managed to survive the constant loss of personnel, but are also thriving with young players and a sudden surge of experienced players. The team suffered only one defeat in 18 Serie A matches under his leadership.
Players such as goalkeeper Andre Onana (to Manchester United), defender Robin Gosens (to Union Berlin), midfielder Marcelo Brozovic (to Al Nasr) and striker Edin Dzeko (to Fenerbahce) ), left the team. In addition, there was an unsuccessful “return” of Romelu Lukaku, who eventually ended up at Roma under the leadership of Jose Mourinho on loan from Chelsea. While Marcus Thuram joined the team as a free agent, his arrival went relatively unnoticed. At the same time, established players in their positions came, such as Benjamin Pavard, Alexis Sanchez, Juan Cuadrado, Francesco Acerbi and Yann Sommer. However, the team achieved outstanding results due to amazing team chemistry and coherence.
Nicolo Barella’s midfield performances have been excellent in 2023, allowing experienced players such as Hakan Calhanoglu to focus on attacking duties. Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez have also shown remarkable chemistry in attack, scoring 25 of the club’s 41 goals so far. Serie A requires consistency and fourteen players have already passed the 1,000 league minutes mark, highlighting the consistency of Inzaghi’s selection and ability to balance substitutions to keep the first team fresh.
The team had some impressive results, including their big 5-1 win over AC Milan, which many didn’t expect, and a 3-0 thumping (2.69 xG) against Napoli in December. They also beat Lazio and Atalanta, while the 1-1 draw with Juventus was one of their few upsets this season. Now they will have to repeat such successes after the New Year break.
Forecasts
At first glance, it seems that the race for the Scudetto will be simple for Inter. Under Simone Inzaghi, the Nerazzurri have lost just seven points from 17 matches, losing only at home to Sassuolo and drawing with top-four Juventus and Bologna. In the remaining 14 matches, the team crushed its opponents with a score of 37-2. Even while participating in the Champions League in December, the team did not concede a single goal. And although Juventus are just four points behind, forecasts from Opta currently give Inter an 82% chance of winning the title.
The battle for the top four in Serie A promises to be exciting and unpredictable. Although Inter (100% chance of finishing in the top four) and Juventus (99.4%) occupy the top two spots, seven other teams have at least an 8% chance of winning one of the remaining positions. Milan (84.8%) are in good form, but Fiorentina (37.3%), Napoli (26.9%), Atalanta (17.8%), Bologna (14 .7%), Lazio (9.2%) and Roma (8.7%) can influence the final result.
It’s an interesting mix of familiar opponents and new faces, especially for a team like Bologna, where Thiago Motta places an emphasis on ball control and a focus on minimizing opposition goals. The Rossoblu have not finished higher than ninth in Serie A since 2002 and have not competed in European competition since 1999-2000. But this season there is a good chance of changing that trend, and perhaps they will return to major European competitions.
