The terms Red mirage and Blue shift refer to a significant electoral phenomenon observed in recent U.S. elections. This occurrence describes the initial apparent lead of Republican candidates following the closure of polls on election night, which often dissipates as mail-in ballots are counted in the subsequent days. The rise in mail-in voting, coupled with varying state rules regarding ballot counting, has contributed to this phenomenon, which former President Donald Trump has cited to support unfounded claims of election fraud.
The 2020 Election Experience
During the 2020 presidential election, many Americans went to bed on election night uncertain of the outcome. Key states, including Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, remained too close to call. The initial counting showed a tight race between then-President Trump and current President Joe Biden. It wasn’t until the early hours of November 6 that Biden took the lead in Georgia, highlighting the slow and complex vote-counting process. CNN projected Biden’s victory four days after Election Day, on November 7, but counting continued in many states. Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology indicated that counties won by Biden tended to count votes more slowly than those won by Trump.
Similar patterns, including the Red Mirage and Blue shift, were observed in the 2016 election, although the blue shift did not significantly alter the outcome. Hillary Clinton, who conceded the day after Election Day, was still trailing in the electoral vote while leading in the popular vote. States like California, which sends mail-in ballots to all registered voters, saw slower counting, suggesting that even if presidential results are determined swiftly, shifts in popular vote could still occur.
Potential Changes for 2024
As the 2024 election approaches, indications suggest that counting may proceed more swiftly in certain states. New laws in Georgia, for instance, are expected to facilitate early in-person voting, potentially expediting the tallying of mail-in ballots. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, stated that the majority of ballots should be processed shortly after polls close. He anticipates that 70-75% of the votes will be reported by 8 p.m. on election night. However, if the race remains close, the final outcome may still be delayed as overseas ballots arrive after Election Day.
States such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin continue to impose restrictions on processing ballots before Election Day, though experience gained from the previous election cycle could lead to quicker counts this year. In Michigan, where pre-Election Day processing is permitted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson expressed hope that results would be available by the end of November 6.
Trusting the Process Amid Uncertainty
Despite improvements, close elections can still extend the timeline for determining a winner. Pennsylvania’s top election official, Al Schmidt, emphasized the importance of trust in the electoral process, particularly in tight races. Drawing comparisons to the contested 2000 election in Florida, which lasted 36 days before the U.S. Supreme Court intervened, Schmidt urged patience and confidence in the system. The uncertainty surrounding the 2024 election results serves as a reminder that, while the methods may evolve, the complexities of counting votes and ensuring accuracy will always play a crucial role in the electoral process.
